A container arriving late at Felixstowe, a component held up at a border, or a customer asking for prices in a volatile currency can tell us more about trends in global trade than a grand speech about globalisation. Trade remains immense, inventive and indispensable. Yet the assumptions that governed it for much of the late twentieth century – predictable routes, steadily falling barriers and the primacy of lowest cost – have been weakened.
Having begun work in international trade when overseas communication involved telexes, cables and costly telephone calls, I am wary of claims that trade has suddenly become either simple or impossible. The tools have changed beyond recognition. The central disciplines have not: knowing the customer, understanding the market, getting the documentation right, protecting cash flow and maintaining patience when events take an unwelcome turn.